How Does the Russian-Ukraine War End?

How Does the Russian-Ukraine War End?

                        Robert A. Levine

There are many different possible scenarios about how the Russian-Ukrainian war might end. The main factor standing in the way of a settlement is the fact that Putin cannot lose face, unless he dies or is deposed, both of which seem unlikely. Thus far, Russian troops have performed abominably, being unable to conquer Kviv or any major city aside from Kherson. They have succeeded in destroying Ukrainian infrastructure and residences in many cities and are guilty of committing horrendous war crimes which Russian propaganda has been unable to keep hidden from the rest of the world. Aside from other autocratic nations, the world seems to be fairly solidly opposed to Russian aggression in Ukraine, the damage they have wrought and the innocent civilians including children that they have killed.

The fact is, however, that Putin doesn’t give a damn about his or Russia’s reputation. He just wants to end this” special operation” with what he can label a victory for his military and the Russian people. Unless this new focus on the Donbas region by the Russian military rewards Putin with some significant territorial gains, Putin is going to have difficulty claiming victory despite the loss of Russian lives and military equipment. A revolt against Putin or his assassination by his military or FSB personnel would probably end the war, but appears very unlikely. His control of the Russian propaganda machine and the media have heightened his approval ratings among the Russian public who have supported his actions against the ”Nazi” regime in Ukraine.

Putin stepping down from his position as president voluntarily is also improbable. If there is a stalemate in the conflict, it is hard to imagine Putin allowing the special operation to continue for years, draining the Russian treasury of what little it has, and losing more Russian manpower. Another consideration if for Putin to use tactical nuclear weapons to try and end the war, either bombing a Ukrainian city or a relatively uninhabited area as a warning to Zelinsky and the Ukrainian government. Of course, that would earn Putin even more approbation from the nations of the world, perhaps even from China.

Another way this war could be ended would be by a major power or an ally of Russia stepping in and suggesting negotiations, either at this point before the battle for the Donbas begins or if a stalemate is reached. The United States would be unable to suggest that since Putin has branded the U.S. and the West as the real participants in the current conflict. China and Xi would be the perfect interlocutors as they are seen as allies of Russia and a world power. They could make it seem as if Russia has been winning by destroying Ukrainian cities and Xi wants to end the bloodshed and destruction. This would certainly make China be perceived positively in the world’s eyes and would be a great triumph for Chairman Xi, particularly with Chinese Communist Party elections on the horizon. The question is whether Xi is farsighted enough to realize the benefits that would accrue to him and to China. At the moment, the CCP is spouting Putin’s lies and at least giving him political support.

Orban of Hungary and Erdogan of Turkey could also try to intercede but do not appear weighty enough to influence Russia. If no leader is able to intercede, one can see this war dragging on and on, since Putin seems to have no regard for the lives of Russian soldiers or Ukrainian civilians. Putin just wants to save face at this point and be able to claim a victory of some sort for a “special operation” that he never should have started in the first place.

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Putin's Madness

Putin’s Madness

            Robert A. Levine 2-7-22

How does the world deal with a madman who controls one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world and appears to be deranged and blatantly paranoid? Very carefully. But will that be enough. He has no compunctions at killing tens of thousands of people so why not millions? Obsessed with power, he wants to live in the past and reconstitute the Soviet Union and the Soviet Empire. He has said that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20^th century. Now it appears as if he is determined to change the course of history and return the world to where it was fifty years ago. And he won’t listen to reason from other world leaders and possibly to his own advisors. Putin says the Russians and Ukrainians are one nation, which means that he doesn’t care about killing his own people.

Does Putin believe any of the lies he is telling the Russian populace and world leaders about why he is invading Ukraine?  Putin claims that there is no war between Russia and Ukraine but a special military operation. The Russian government has forbidden all the media and the opposition to Putin to label the fighting in Ukraine as a war. He says the Ukrainian government and military are neo-Nazis and are a danger to Russia. Can he really believe that when Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, is a Jew? And how can Ukraine be a threat to Russia when the latter has nuclear weapons which Ukraine returned to Russia when the nukes were stationed on Ukrainian soil. Putin also claims that Ukraine has always been a part of Russia and not an independent nation. Russia has four times the population of Ukraine as well, a much larger and stronger military, with the latest weapons and a far superior air force and number of tanks.

Putin says the Russians are not targeting civilians in Ukraine, though they are bombing civilian apartment houses and residences in the large cities and shutting down sources of water and electricity. They’ve also attacked the largest nuclear plant in Europe which could be disastrous if it exploded, with radiation many times that of Chernobyl. Whether Ukraine survives as an independent state or as a Russian vassal, rebuilding the destroyed infrastructure of the country with ravaged buildings and residences will cost hundreds of billions, if not trillions of Euros.

The videos of Putin sitting at one end of a very long table, with advisors, or cabinet members, or visitors at the other end is another manifestation of his paranoia. It may have been valid when Covid 19 was rampant, but is now unnecessary and shows Putin as being isolated from other human contact. Was he afflicted with Covid and did that change his cognitive function and mental acuity? Was it just his prolonged isolation and listening to his own propaganda?  He has placed his nuclear weapons on a higher alert status, threatening their use if any nation interferes in his war with Ukraine. These are not the actions of a rational man.

But the only people who can stop Putin are the Russians themselves, though most of them seem to believe his propaganda regarding the war. The Russian people’s only access to news is through Russian state radio and television, though the young people get some information through the internet which is also inundated with government lies and propaganda. Some brave Russian souls have demonstrated against the war and thousands have been imprisoned because of their opposition.

The world’s economy is being hit hard by Putin’s misadventure. Not only are gas and oil supplies diminished, but important metals for technology like cobalt, titanium, nickel and lithium are all being squeezed. And even worse is the decrease in supplies of grain which usually come from Russia and Ukraine. Wheat, barley and corn are all in short supply with prices rising quickly. This will cause even worse inflation in the developed world and hunger and famine in Third World nations. Putin doesn’t care. He sees himself as returning Russia to its rightful place in the world’s power hierarchy and himself as one in a long line of strong Russian rulers. He wants to restore Russia’s empire and sphere of influence and abolish the rules based relationships between nations that became prevalent after World War II and atomic weapons. Putin may next go after other previous Soviet vassal states. How it will end is uncertain as it is difficult to read the mind of a madman.

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Understanding Putin and Russia

Understanding Putin and Russia                                                                                                                            Robert A. Levine

When the Soviet Union and Communism dissolved in 1989-90, Russian citizens were shell shocked. They had no concept of how democracy and capitalism actually worked when it appeared that these were Russia’s next steps. The Russians had been fed a steady diet of propaganda for over 70 years, demonizing liberal capitalist democracy, lauding Marxist economics, the Soviet empire and praising Russian exceptionalism and greatness. When parliamentary elections took place in December 1993, the populist and ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky and his party were the winners with 22 percent of the vote. Russia’s Choice Party, whose goals were democratic and western oriented, avoiding populist promises that could not be fulfilled, received only 15 percent of the vote.

Without a background or education in democratic principles, Russians were politically illiterate and unprepared for the advent of democracy. Having also been inculcated with the idea that they were one of the world’s great powers and rulers of the Soviet Empire, Russians were unaccepting of a lesser role. President George H.W. Bush’s comment that America had won the Cold War also stuck in the craw of many Russian citizens to whom Russian power was important. It was as if America and the west had stolen their dignity and dishonored them.

In 1996, Boris Yeltsin was elected president of Russian against a communist opponent, Gennady Zyuganov, in a campaign controlled and directed by Russian oligarchs and media tycoons. Yeltsin was perceived as a weak leader whom the oligarchs could manipulate and exploit. And they were largely right. It was not a victory for liberal democracy or the Russian people, allowing the oligarchs to acquire previously state owned resources and properties at cut-rate prices, then using capitalist techniques to grow their wealth. Youthful reformers in the government who favored liberal democracy and western ideals were forced out of their jobs, tarnished by the media, money and prostitutes. And some like Boris Nemtsov, who was fighting for a liberal democracy, were assassinated by those afraid of his ideas and charisma.

The liberal media was also destroyed by the oligarchs, with western values derided and a nostalgia for Soviet times and a leading place in the world. The siege of Sarajevo in the Bosnian-Serbian war and the bombing of Serbia, a long-time ally of Russia sharing the Orthodox religion, also soured the Russian public on NATO, America and the west. Nationalist sentiment greatly increased just as Putin’s star began to rise. While Yeltsin was still president, he and the oligarchs supported Putin, a former KGB agent. TV and the media fawned over Putin, a young, sharp and dynamic man, energetic and healthy.  In August of 1999, Yeltsin appointed Putin as prime minister and backed Putin to succeed him as president when he resigned on New Year’s Eve 1999.

Subsequently, Putin consolidated his power while keeping the outer vestiges of democracy intact. With the price of oil rising, the Russian economy thrived and Putin was able to increase consumer goods, build up the military and satisfy most of the Russian population. He limited his presidency to two terms initially, making Dimitri Medvedev president while Putin became prime minister. But there was no question of who really held the reins of power. After Medvedev served four years, Putin was re-elect president again. In a referendum in 2020, Putin was elected as president until 2036 when he will be 83 years old. Thus he is essentially president for life.

There has been some opposition to Putin from a small coterie of liberals who do not want Russia run by a dictator for life. Recently, the opposition has been led by Alex Navalny, who was poisoned in Siberia, most likely by the FSB, and almost died. He is now back in Russia and was sent to prison. All the media outlets that criticize Putin have been shut down, and liberals and human rights supporters have been labeled as enemy agents, many of them also thrown in prison. Thus, Russia isn’t even a pseudo-democratic state at this point.

Under Putin’s guidance, Russia has been involved in multiple military ventures, to assuage the nationalists and restore the nation’s great power status, at least in Putin’s mind. There was the second Chechen war, the war with Georgia, Russian intervention in Syria, the annexation of the Crimea from Ukraine, the intervention in Khazachstan, and now the threat to invade Ukraine. Putin wants Russia to be recognized again as a great power and himself as a great leader. He wants to restore some of the dignity and honor that Russia lost when the Soviet Union imploded. Putin feels that he and Russia are disrespected by the west and wants to display his nation’s power, which will help him at home as well as abroad. He is the longest serving Russian leader since Stalin.                                                                                                www.robertlevinebooks.com                                                                                                                       Buy The Uninformed Voter on Amazon and Barnes and Noble