Putin's Madness

Putin’s Madness

            Robert A. Levine 2-7-22

How does the world deal with a madman who controls one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world and appears to be deranged and blatantly paranoid? Very carefully. But will that be enough. He has no compunctions at killing tens of thousands of people so why not millions? Obsessed with power, he wants to live in the past and reconstitute the Soviet Union and the Soviet Empire. He has said that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20^th century. Now it appears as if he is determined to change the course of history and return the world to where it was fifty years ago. And he won’t listen to reason from other world leaders and possibly to his own advisors. Putin says the Russians and Ukrainians are one nation, which means that he doesn’t care about killing his own people.

Does Putin believe any of the lies he is telling the Russian populace and world leaders about why he is invading Ukraine?  Putin claims that there is no war between Russia and Ukraine but a special military operation. The Russian government has forbidden all the media and the opposition to Putin to label the fighting in Ukraine as a war. He says the Ukrainian government and military are neo-Nazis and are a danger to Russia. Can he really believe that when Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, is a Jew? And how can Ukraine be a threat to Russia when the latter has nuclear weapons which Ukraine returned to Russia when the nukes were stationed on Ukrainian soil. Putin also claims that Ukraine has always been a part of Russia and not an independent nation. Russia has four times the population of Ukraine as well, a much larger and stronger military, with the latest weapons and a far superior air force and number of tanks.

Putin says the Russians are not targeting civilians in Ukraine, though they are bombing civilian apartment houses and residences in the large cities and shutting down sources of water and electricity. They’ve also attacked the largest nuclear plant in Europe which could be disastrous if it exploded, with radiation many times that of Chernobyl. Whether Ukraine survives as an independent state or as a Russian vassal, rebuilding the destroyed infrastructure of the country with ravaged buildings and residences will cost hundreds of billions, if not trillions of Euros.

The videos of Putin sitting at one end of a very long table, with advisors, or cabinet members, or visitors at the other end is another manifestation of his paranoia. It may have been valid when Covid 19 was rampant, but is now unnecessary and shows Putin as being isolated from other human contact. Was he afflicted with Covid and did that change his cognitive function and mental acuity? Was it just his prolonged isolation and listening to his own propaganda?  He has placed his nuclear weapons on a higher alert status, threatening their use if any nation interferes in his war with Ukraine. These are not the actions of a rational man.

But the only people who can stop Putin are the Russians themselves, though most of them seem to believe his propaganda regarding the war. The Russian people’s only access to news is through Russian state radio and television, though the young people get some information through the internet which is also inundated with government lies and propaganda. Some brave Russian souls have demonstrated against the war and thousands have been imprisoned because of their opposition.

The world’s economy is being hit hard by Putin’s misadventure. Not only are gas and oil supplies diminished, but important metals for technology like cobalt, titanium, nickel and lithium are all being squeezed. And even worse is the decrease in supplies of grain which usually come from Russia and Ukraine. Wheat, barley and corn are all in short supply with prices rising quickly. This will cause even worse inflation in the developed world and hunger and famine in Third World nations. Putin doesn’t care. He sees himself as returning Russia to its rightful place in the world’s power hierarchy and himself as one in a long line of strong Russian rulers. He wants to restore Russia’s empire and sphere of influence and abolish the rules based relationships between nations that became prevalent after World War II and atomic weapons. Putin may next go after other previous Soviet vassal states. How it will end is uncertain as it is difficult to read the mind of a madman.

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What Does Putin Want?

What Does Putin Want?                                                                                                                              Robert A.  Levine

The answer seems simple. Putin has said several times that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the biggest catastrophe of the 20^th century. As an old KGB officer, he would like to right what sees as this wrong and reconstitute Russia as a world power in the mold of the Soviet Union. Putin was angry when George H.W Bush said that the Soviet Union had lost the Cold War and was outraged when Obama declared that Russia was just a regional power.

Now Putin is trying to show the world that Russia is still a world power and that the United States and NATO cannot stop him from achieving his goals. He believes that Russia should have a sphere of influence that includes all the nations that surrounds it and that NATO troops should not be stationed in any of those countries, what Putin calls Russia’s ‘near abroad’. He also believes that Ukraine is part of mother Russia and does not want it to become a western democracy right on Russia’s doorstep.

However, while Putin has modernized Russia’s military to put it on a par with the U.S. and China, he does not have the industrial base or the economy to maintain his large army and fight wars. His economy is in the doldrums, the Russian people lacking many modern conveniences. His only exportable products are fossil fuels, oil and gas, which does give him a lever to use against European nations. But with the movement towards renewables, fossil fuels will only be of value to Russia for a few more years, or a decade at most. As energy from renewables goes up, fossil fuel exports will be going down.

Putin has not been preparing Russia for the day when fossil fuels will no longer bring in capital to Russia and will not be helpful as a bargaining point. He needs to diversify Russia’s economy and have high tech products that they can sell to other nations. And he has to stop spending so much of Russia’s funds on his military and subsidize other industries. He also has to tax the oligarchs who support him and distribute some of their wealth to the ordinary Russians. The quality of the average Russians life has to improve or there will be a breaking point in the future. People cannot live on the glory of military victories when they don’t have the conveniences of modern life. Social media and the internet allow them to see what the citizens of western nations have that they lack. And propaganda will just go so far.

Russia is a vast land and aside from fossil fuel, they have many different natural resources that have not yet been fully exploited. There is also plenty of land that can be utilized for agriculture. Putin should stop looking for military victories to sustain him in power and instead look inward to see how he could help Russians improve their quality of life. He should concentrate on new industries and welcome investors from other advanced countries to provide funds for Russia to achieve first world status in other realms besides military power. Of course, he would have to provide guarantees before wary westerners would consider investing. As a narcissistic dictator who does not brook opposition, it is questionable whether Putin would be willing to surrender military parity with the United States and put his money elsewhere in the Russian economy to generate consumer goods and high tech products.

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Understanding Putin and Russia

Understanding Putin and Russia                                                                                                                            Robert A. Levine

When the Soviet Union and Communism dissolved in 1989-90, Russian citizens were shell shocked. They had no concept of how democracy and capitalism actually worked when it appeared that these were Russia’s next steps. The Russians had been fed a steady diet of propaganda for over 70 years, demonizing liberal capitalist democracy, lauding Marxist economics, the Soviet empire and praising Russian exceptionalism and greatness. When parliamentary elections took place in December 1993, the populist and ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky and his party were the winners with 22 percent of the vote. Russia’s Choice Party, whose goals were democratic and western oriented, avoiding populist promises that could not be fulfilled, received only 15 percent of the vote.

Without a background or education in democratic principles, Russians were politically illiterate and unprepared for the advent of democracy. Having also been inculcated with the idea that they were one of the world’s great powers and rulers of the Soviet Empire, Russians were unaccepting of a lesser role. President George H.W. Bush’s comment that America had won the Cold War also stuck in the craw of many Russian citizens to whom Russian power was important. It was as if America and the west had stolen their dignity and dishonored them.

In 1996, Boris Yeltsin was elected president of Russian against a communist opponent, Gennady Zyuganov, in a campaign controlled and directed by Russian oligarchs and media tycoons. Yeltsin was perceived as a weak leader whom the oligarchs could manipulate and exploit. And they were largely right. It was not a victory for liberal democracy or the Russian people, allowing the oligarchs to acquire previously state owned resources and properties at cut-rate prices, then using capitalist techniques to grow their wealth. Youthful reformers in the government who favored liberal democracy and western ideals were forced out of their jobs, tarnished by the media, money and prostitutes. And some like Boris Nemtsov, who was fighting for a liberal democracy, were assassinated by those afraid of his ideas and charisma.

The liberal media was also destroyed by the oligarchs, with western values derided and a nostalgia for Soviet times and a leading place in the world. The siege of Sarajevo in the Bosnian-Serbian war and the bombing of Serbia, a long-time ally of Russia sharing the Orthodox religion, also soured the Russian public on NATO, America and the west. Nationalist sentiment greatly increased just as Putin’s star began to rise. While Yeltsin was still president, he and the oligarchs supported Putin, a former KGB agent. TV and the media fawned over Putin, a young, sharp and dynamic man, energetic and healthy.  In August of 1999, Yeltsin appointed Putin as prime minister and backed Putin to succeed him as president when he resigned on New Year’s Eve 1999.

Subsequently, Putin consolidated his power while keeping the outer vestiges of democracy intact. With the price of oil rising, the Russian economy thrived and Putin was able to increase consumer goods, build up the military and satisfy most of the Russian population. He limited his presidency to two terms initially, making Dimitri Medvedev president while Putin became prime minister. But there was no question of who really held the reins of power. After Medvedev served four years, Putin was re-elect president again. In a referendum in 2020, Putin was elected as president until 2036 when he will be 83 years old. Thus he is essentially president for life.

There has been some opposition to Putin from a small coterie of liberals who do not want Russia run by a dictator for life. Recently, the opposition has been led by Alex Navalny, who was poisoned in Siberia, most likely by the FSB, and almost died. He is now back in Russia and was sent to prison. All the media outlets that criticize Putin have been shut down, and liberals and human rights supporters have been labeled as enemy agents, many of them also thrown in prison. Thus, Russia isn’t even a pseudo-democratic state at this point.

Under Putin’s guidance, Russia has been involved in multiple military ventures, to assuage the nationalists and restore the nation’s great power status, at least in Putin’s mind. There was the second Chechen war, the war with Georgia, Russian intervention in Syria, the annexation of the Crimea from Ukraine, the intervention in Khazachstan, and now the threat to invade Ukraine. Putin wants Russia to be recognized again as a great power and himself as a great leader. He wants to restore some of the dignity and honor that Russia lost when the Soviet Union imploded. Putin feels that he and Russia are disrespected by the west and wants to display his nation’s power, which will help him at home as well as abroad. He is the longest serving Russian leader since Stalin.                                                                                                www.robertlevinebooks.com                                                                                                                       Buy The Uninformed Voter on Amazon and Barnes and Noble